“It’ll be interesting to see what crawls out of the corpse”
So says Peter Gabriel discussing the future of the music business. There’s no doubt the big business end of the music industry is in crisis, as the disruptive technology of broadband internet undermines the existing business model of the major labels.
While some people are running around screaming that the sky is falling in, and in the future there will be “nothing but X-factor finalists and people recording in their bedrooms”, I’m a lot more optimistic that good music will survive, and the (possible) fall of the major labels won’t actually be a bad thing.
Some predictions of mine:
- There will be an even starker divide between the showbiz celebrity and the creative artist. Both have always existed, but rock’n'roll had traditionally managed to bridge the gap between the two.
- X-Factor, having been exposed as a completely rigged farce, will implode the way Big Brother did as the public lose interest. This is probably as wishful thinking as Simon Cowell meeting a sudden end being crushed by a falling Mellotron, but one can dream.
- The overall music scene will continue to fragment, with many niche genres of whom the general public will never be aware, promoted over the net rather than the mass media. A few of the best artists will cross over into the mainstream.
- Illegal file-sharing will not kill recorded music. Those who can think outside the box will be able to make a living from recorded music, either from CD sales, legal downloads or subscription-based streaming services.
- Fan funding in lieu of an advance from a label, as pioneered by Marillion, will become commonplace for artists working in niche genres.
- Indie record labels will only survive if they can add enough value to justify their existence - acting as a quality filter for fans, and offering a higher profile than self-releasing for artists.
- There will be a major shakeup at the BBC when someone in power realises that being joined at the hip to Universal Records is not compatible with the BBC charter - Radio 1 and 2 playlists get more interesting, and more diverse new music gets showcased on TV. They even broadcast the Download festival instead of Glastonbury. OK, so this is wishful thinking as well,
- Interesting and challenging music will continue to be made, and some of it will manage to find an audience. As will a lot of formulaic drivel.
